Fire OblationTier 2
at 20260307 貓腳印-桃園店 PTM 店冠賽
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1348
· median 1348
· range 1289–1407
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1255
Q3 1415
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
